“Damned if you do, damned if you don’t” - An insight into the collateral damage of Russian aggression and Western sanctions.
Malian women sift wheat in a field near Segou, central Mali.
(AP Photo/Jerome Delay, File/Jan. 22, 2013)
In 2022, Families across Africa are paying about 45% more for wheat flour as Russia's war in Ukraine blocks exports from the Black Sea. Some countries like Somalia get more than 90% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. That's forcing many people to substitute wheat for other grains. But the United Nations is warning that the price hikes are coming as many parts of Africa are facing drought and hunger. - Associated Press
According to United Nations Assistant Secretary General Ahunna Eziakonwa, Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted Africa’s promising recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic by raising food and fuel prices, disrupting trade of goods and services, worsening the hunger crisis, constraining green transitions, and reducing the flow of development finance into the continent.
Starvation if you do, and counter-sanctioned if not done carefully; a multitude of African leaders are being pressured to decide between death by economy or starvation as the true death toll of global Russian aggression is being revealed. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, lawmakers are tasked with deciding whether to condemn their constituents to seemingly indefinite economic turmoil, in an already turbulent time due to sanctions should they chose to purchase Russian agricultural goods. The alternative, risk mass disease and casualties via starvation. Unfortunately, it seems regardless of their decisionmaking, all roads may lead to Rome as both options could result in mass casualty and civil unrest, in the absence of calculated preventative measures.
The pains of conflict have rippled far beyond Ukraine’s borders, as a result of disruptions in the global food supply and crippling sanctions levelled on Russia including states that have not severed economic ties with the superpower. Prior to the conflict, 30% of the global wheat supply was exported by Russia and Ukraine, Russia was also the world’s largest exporter of fertilizer and Ukraine exported over half of the global supply of sunflower oil. Sunflower Oil is fourth most consumed cooking oil in the world, fertilizer is essential for providing crops with nutrients and wheat, arguably the most important, is critical for its nutritional value and is also widely consumed across the African continent, essential to many cultural cuisines.
Between 2007 and 2019, Africa saw an increased demand for wheat and sunflower oil products, much of which is imported rather than domestically produced. According to the United Nations, wheat imports increased by 68% during this 12-year period and wheat consumption on the continent is expected to top 76.5 million tonnes within the next 3 years. Whilst Russia and Ukraine, commonly known as the breadbasket of the world, produced only 30% of the world’s wheat, African nations were major importers, and consumed much of the Wheat produced by both nations. External trade data shows that 9 African Nations across the East, West and South accounted for around 80% of Russia and Ukraine’s wheat imports. Western sanctions have furthered the food shortage crisis with nations risking plunging their citizens into further financial hardship amid worsening inflation. In the event that individuals have access to wheat, on average prices have increased by 45%. Further, sanctions risk plaguing African nations into turmoil. Creating a scarcity crisis, economic sanctions possess the power to bolster authoritarian regimes, giving them greater ability to directly control the flow of goods and services, negatively affecting social mobility, putting political opponents and dissenters at risk.
However, all hope is not lost, as the crisis has resulted in a renewed spotlight on continental needs. Global Intergovernmental Organisations such as the World Bank have launched renewed campaigns to alleviate the effects of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict on the continent. This includes strengthening social security nets, investing in food and social Infrastructure such as the support of cash transfers to communities in need, providing farmers with access to fertilizer and seed, providing education on contemporary income generating activities and by releasing strategic food reserves. According to a report by the World Bank, up to 2 million individuals have benefitted as a result of emergency food support and humanitarian assistance. The World Bank is further investing funds and resources to promote investment in the next agricultural season in order to ensure a “post-shock recovery”. You can find more on this report and further information on responses, through their respective hyperlinks.
Fortunately, as wheat prices have reached new heights, Australian wheat farmers have stepped up, the “top contenders” to constitute for the loss of grain from the breadbasket of the world. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, the predicted amount of wheat produced during the previous financial year is expected to reach a new high of 36.3 million tonnes, approximately 5% higher than the previous financial year. Favourable conditions such as above average rainfall and the lack of drought, that battered the Northern Hemisphere, have allowed for such figures. In comparison, the world’s second largest producer of wheat, the United States, expects their wheat yields to drop by 10% and in the world’s third largest producer, Canada, wheat yields dropped by approximately 38.5% in 2021.
In the midst of logistical shortfalls preventing grain from being placed onto trucks and ships, the federal and state government and private organisations such as CBH, Western Australia’s largest grain-growing cooperative, have announced multi-million-dollar investments in the nation's logistical infrastructure to ensure the flow of exports. In June, the CBH Group announced that it had secured funding from the state and federal government to invest in agricultural infrastructure within Western Australia’s grain growing regions. The projects will be funded under the first package of the Agricultural Supply Chain Improvement (ASCI) of which has attracted $200 Million in government funding. In need of support during sedulous times, more information on how we can support Australian wheat farmers can be found, here.